2024 Cereal Rust Risk Report (May 14-20, 2024)

The second weekly Prairie wind trajectory cereal rust risk report for 2024 is available for download now at the following link: May 14-20, 2024 report.  

As of the week of May 14-20, 2024, the overall Prairie cereal rust risk assessment and need for in-crop scouting is as follows:

Pacific Northwest – There were relatively low numbers of reverse wind trajectories that passed over the PNW region and into the Prairies, while stripe rust development is continuing, although levels are generally low, especially in commercial winter wheat fields in the PNW.  Prairie winter wheat crops are progressing into the tillering stage, while much of the spring wheat crop has just been seeded or will be seeded over the next two weeks.  Overall, as of May 20, 2024 the risk of stripe rust appearance from the PNW is limited and scouting for this disease in the Prairie region is generally not urgent.

Texas-Oklahoma corridor – There were no reverse wind trajectories that passed over the TX/OK region and into the Prairies from May 14-20, 2024, while stripe and leaf rust development are continuing, although levels are generally low, especially in commercial winter wheat fields in the PNW.  Prairie winter wheat crops are progressing into the tillering stage, while much of the spring wheat crop has just been seeded or will be seeded over the next two weeks.  Overall, as of May 20, 2024 the risk of stem, leaf, stripe, and crown rust appearance from the Texas-Oklahoma corridor is relatively low and scouting for these diseases in the Prairie region is not urgent.

Kansas-Nebraska corridor – There were no reverse wind trajectories that passed over the KS/NE region and into the Prairies from May 14-20, 2024, while stripe and leaf rust development are continuing, albeit levels are generally low, especially in commercial winter wheat fields in this region.  However, elevated stripe rust levels have been observed in central regions of Kansas.  Prairie winter wheat crops are moving into the tillering stage, while much of the spring wheat crop has just been seeded or will be seeded over the next two weeks.  Overall, as of May 20, 2024 the risk of stem, leaf, stripe, and crown rust appearance from the Kansas-Nebraska corridor is relatively low and scouting for these diseases in the Prairies is not urgent.

The early and widespread appearance of stripe rust in the PNW, TX/OK and KS/NE regions is still concerning.  Over the next 2-4 weeks if favourable weather conditions (especially more rainfall) occur in these source US regions, further rust development could occur.  This would result in more rust spores being available to be blown into the Prairie region, as well as more northerly rust development into the Dakotas and Minnesota/Wisconsin.  Currently, Prairie winter wheat fields are most at risk, but fortunately most current winter wheat varieties have intermediate to high levels of resistance, although AC Radiant, CDC Buteo, AAC Elevate, Broadview, and CDC Falcon are rated as susceptible (https://www.seed.ab.ca/variety-data/cereals/; https://saskseed.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/2024-Varieties-of-Grain-Crops.pdf; https://www.seedmb.ca/pdf-editions-and-separate-section-pdfs/).  If you are growing a stripe rust susceptible variety, it will be important to keep an eye on your crops and follow further PCDMN cereal risk updates (https://prairiecropdisease.blogspot.com/). 

 

2024 Cereal Rust Risk Report (May 7-13, 2024)

The first weekly Prairie wind trajectory cereal rust risk report for 2024 is available for download now at the following link: May 7-13, 2024 report.  

As of the week of May 7-13, 2024, the overall Prairie cereal rust risk assessment and need for in-crop scouting is as follows:

Pacific Northwest – There were low to moderate numbers of reverse wind trajectories that passed over the PNW region and into the prairies, while stripe rust development is continuing, although levels are generally low, especially in commercial winter wheat fields in the PNW.  Prairie winter wheat crops have resumed growth, while much of the spring wheat crop has just been seeded or will be seeded over the next two weeks.  Overall as of May 13, 2024 the risk of stripe rust appearance from the PNW is limited and scouting for this disease in the Prairie region is generally not urgent.

Texas-Oklahoma corridor – There were relatively low numbers of reverse wind trajectories that passed over the TX/OK region and into the prairies, while stripe and leaf rust development are continuing, although levels are generally low, especially in commercial winter wheat fields in this region.  Prairie winter wheat crops have resumed growth, while much of the spring wheat crop has just been seeded or will be seeded over the next two weeks. Overall as of May 13, 2024 the risk of stem, leaf, stripe, and crown rust appearance from the Texas-Oklahoma corridor is limited and scouting for these diseases in the Prairie region is not urgent.

Kansas-Nebraska corridor – There were relatively low numbers of reverse wind trajectories that passed over the KS/NE region and into the prairies, while stripe and leaf rust development are continuing, although levels are generally low, especially in commercial winter wheat fields in this region.  Prairie winter wheat crops have resumed growth, while much of the spring wheat crop has just been seeded or will be seeded over the next two weeks.  Overall as of May 13, 2024 the risk of stem, leaf, stripe, and crown rust appearance from the Kansas-Nebraska corridor is limited and scouting for these diseases in the Prairies is not urgent.

The early and wide spread appearance of stripe rust in the PNW, TX/OK and KS/NE regions is concerning.  Over the next 2-4 weeks, if favourable weather conditions (especially more rainfall) occur in these source US regions, further stripe and leaf rust development could occur.  This would result in more rust spores being available to be blown into the Prairie region, as well as more northerly rust development into the Dakotas and Minnesota/Wisconsin.  Currently, Prairie winter wheat fields that have started to regrow are most at risk, but fortunately most current winter wheat varieties have intermediate to high levels of resistance, although AC Radiant, CDC Buteo, AAC Elevate, Broadview, and CDC Falcon are rated as susceptible (https://www.seed.ab.ca/variety-data/cereals/; https://saskseed.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/2024-Varieties-of-Grain-Crops.pdf; https://www.seedmb.ca/pdf-editions-and-separate-section-pdfs/).  If you are growing a stripe rust susceptible variety, it is important to keep an eye on your fields and follow further PCDMN cereal risk updates (https://prairiecropdisease.blogspot.com/). 

2021 Cereal Rust Risk Report (May 12-20, 2021)

The latest Prairie wind trajectory cereal rust risk report is available for download now at the following link: May 12-20, 2021 report.  

As of May 20, 2021 the overall Prairie cereal rust risk assessment and need for in-crop scouting is as follows:

Pacific Northwest – Even though there were a number of reverse wind trajectories that passed over the PNW region and into the prairies, given limited stripe rust development in the PNW, generally dry Prairie weather conditions during the week of May 10-16, 2021, and early stages of Prairie crop development, as of May 20, 2021 the risk of stripe rust appearance from the PNW is limited and scouting for this disease is generally not urgent.

Texas-Oklahoma corridor – Given limited leaf and stripe rust development in this corridor (especially Texas), a smaller number of recent wind trajectories from this area, generally dry Prairie weather conditions, and early stages of Prairie crop development, as of May 20, 2021 the risk of leaf and stripe rust appearance from the Texas-Nebraska corridor is low and scouting for these diseases is not urgent. 

Kansas-Nebraska corridor – Stripe rust is continuing to develop in Kansas, and is progressing in Nebraska, while there were limited to no recent wind trajectories from this area into the central to western Prairie region.  However, there have been a number of trajectories that have passed over the central to eastern Prairie region.  Overall Prairie weather conditions have been dry during the period of May 10-16, 2021, and generally dry in Saskatchewan and Manitoba from April 17-May 16, 2021.  Prairie spring wheat development is still early, while winter cereals continue to develop.  As of May 20, 2021 the risk of leaf and stripe rust appearance from the Kansas-Nebraska corridor is low for the central to western Prairie region and moderate (mainly for stripe rust) for the central to eastern Prairie region.  Scouting for these diseases in winter wheat fields is recommended over the next 1-2 weeks, especially those planted to stripe rust susceptible varieties. 

Recent reports of stripe rust in Minnesota and Illinois suggest more northerly development of this disease and as a consequence growers in the central to eastern Prairie region should be on the look out for stripe rust over the next couple of weeks, especially in fields planted to susceptible winter wheat varieties. 

Wind trajectories and regional rust development in relation to Prairie cereal rust risk (Jul 14-20)

Here is a mini update regarding wind trajectories and regional rust development in relation to Prairie cereal rust risk.  

The full report can be found at: July 14-20, 2020 cereal rust risk update

Given the state of maturity and harvest in the USA on winter wheat, these regions no longer represent a significant source of rust inoculum for the Prairie region and the weekly full PCDMN updates for 2020 have finished for these areas.  However, spring cereals in these regions may still represent a source of rust inoculum although the acreage of spring wheat is typically lower than that of winter wheat, depending on the State.

With the appearance of stripe rust in ten southern Alberta municipalities, at Beaverlodge in the Country of Grande Prairie, in the Fort St. John/Dawson Creek region of BC, and at four locations in Saskatchewan, farmers in these regions should be on the look out for stripe rust in wheat.  In addition, farmers in regions north and east to northeast of southern Alberta should be on alert as southerly winds may transport stripe rust spores.  Moreover, trajectory analysis from July 14-20, 2020 has indicated a total of 13 of 29 locations where wind trajectories previously passed over the stripe rust area of southern AB.  Special focus should be on wheat fields seeded to varieties rated as susceptible or moderately susceptible.  Also, given the appearance of crown rust in the Mannville region of Alberta, as well as at Carman, Manitoba, oat growers in this area need to be on the look out for crown rust.

Growers with very late seeded fields of wheat or perhaps barley for swath grazing may want to be especially diligent in terms of scouting for stripe rust.  Over the years some of the most severe stripe rust epidemics have occurred in wheat fields seeded late (e.g. June) for swath grazing, especially where the variety was susceptible.