2024 Cereal Rust Risk Report (May 14-20, 2024)

The second weekly Prairie wind trajectory cereal rust risk report for 2024 is available for download now at the following link: May 14-20, 2024 report.  

As of the week of May 14-20, 2024, the overall Prairie cereal rust risk assessment and need for in-crop scouting is as follows:

Pacific Northwest – There were relatively low numbers of reverse wind trajectories that passed over the PNW region and into the Prairies, while stripe rust development is continuing, although levels are generally low, especially in commercial winter wheat fields in the PNW.  Prairie winter wheat crops are progressing into the tillering stage, while much of the spring wheat crop has just been seeded or will be seeded over the next two weeks.  Overall, as of May 20, 2024 the risk of stripe rust appearance from the PNW is limited and scouting for this disease in the Prairie region is generally not urgent.

Texas-Oklahoma corridor – There were no reverse wind trajectories that passed over the TX/OK region and into the Prairies from May 14-20, 2024, while stripe and leaf rust development are continuing, although levels are generally low, especially in commercial winter wheat fields in the PNW.  Prairie winter wheat crops are progressing into the tillering stage, while much of the spring wheat crop has just been seeded or will be seeded over the next two weeks.  Overall, as of May 20, 2024 the risk of stem, leaf, stripe, and crown rust appearance from the Texas-Oklahoma corridor is relatively low and scouting for these diseases in the Prairie region is not urgent.

Kansas-Nebraska corridor – There were no reverse wind trajectories that passed over the KS/NE region and into the Prairies from May 14-20, 2024, while stripe and leaf rust development are continuing, albeit levels are generally low, especially in commercial winter wheat fields in this region.  However, elevated stripe rust levels have been observed in central regions of Kansas.  Prairie winter wheat crops are moving into the tillering stage, while much of the spring wheat crop has just been seeded or will be seeded over the next two weeks.  Overall, as of May 20, 2024 the risk of stem, leaf, stripe, and crown rust appearance from the Kansas-Nebraska corridor is relatively low and scouting for these diseases in the Prairies is not urgent.

The early and widespread appearance of stripe rust in the PNW, TX/OK and KS/NE regions is still concerning.  Over the next 2-4 weeks if favourable weather conditions (especially more rainfall) occur in these source US regions, further rust development could occur.  This would result in more rust spores being available to be blown into the Prairie region, as well as more northerly rust development into the Dakotas and Minnesota/Wisconsin.  Currently, Prairie winter wheat fields are most at risk, but fortunately most current winter wheat varieties have intermediate to high levels of resistance, although AC Radiant, CDC Buteo, AAC Elevate, Broadview, and CDC Falcon are rated as susceptible (https://www.seed.ab.ca/variety-data/cereals/; https://saskseed.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/2024-Varieties-of-Grain-Crops.pdf; https://www.seedmb.ca/pdf-editions-and-separate-section-pdfs/).  If you are growing a stripe rust susceptible variety, it will be important to keep an eye on your crops and follow further PCDMN cereal risk updates (https://prairiecropdisease.blogspot.com/). 

 

2024 Cereal Rust Risk Report (May 7-13, 2024)

The first weekly Prairie wind trajectory cereal rust risk report for 2024 is available for download now at the following link: May 7-13, 2024 report.  

As of the week of May 7-13, 2024, the overall Prairie cereal rust risk assessment and need for in-crop scouting is as follows:

Pacific Northwest – There were low to moderate numbers of reverse wind trajectories that passed over the PNW region and into the prairies, while stripe rust development is continuing, although levels are generally low, especially in commercial winter wheat fields in the PNW.  Prairie winter wheat crops have resumed growth, while much of the spring wheat crop has just been seeded or will be seeded over the next two weeks.  Overall as of May 13, 2024 the risk of stripe rust appearance from the PNW is limited and scouting for this disease in the Prairie region is generally not urgent.

Texas-Oklahoma corridor – There were relatively low numbers of reverse wind trajectories that passed over the TX/OK region and into the prairies, while stripe and leaf rust development are continuing, although levels are generally low, especially in commercial winter wheat fields in this region.  Prairie winter wheat crops have resumed growth, while much of the spring wheat crop has just been seeded or will be seeded over the next two weeks. Overall as of May 13, 2024 the risk of stem, leaf, stripe, and crown rust appearance from the Texas-Oklahoma corridor is limited and scouting for these diseases in the Prairie region is not urgent.

Kansas-Nebraska corridor – There were relatively low numbers of reverse wind trajectories that passed over the KS/NE region and into the prairies, while stripe and leaf rust development are continuing, although levels are generally low, especially in commercial winter wheat fields in this region.  Prairie winter wheat crops have resumed growth, while much of the spring wheat crop has just been seeded or will be seeded over the next two weeks.  Overall as of May 13, 2024 the risk of stem, leaf, stripe, and crown rust appearance from the Kansas-Nebraska corridor is limited and scouting for these diseases in the Prairies is not urgent.

The early and wide spread appearance of stripe rust in the PNW, TX/OK and KS/NE regions is concerning.  Over the next 2-4 weeks, if favourable weather conditions (especially more rainfall) occur in these source US regions, further stripe and leaf rust development could occur.  This would result in more rust spores being available to be blown into the Prairie region, as well as more northerly rust development into the Dakotas and Minnesota/Wisconsin.  Currently, Prairie winter wheat fields that have started to regrow are most at risk, but fortunately most current winter wheat varieties have intermediate to high levels of resistance, although AC Radiant, CDC Buteo, AAC Elevate, Broadview, and CDC Falcon are rated as susceptible (https://www.seed.ab.ca/variety-data/cereals/; https://saskseed.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/2024-Varieties-of-Grain-Crops.pdf; https://www.seedmb.ca/pdf-editions-and-separate-section-pdfs/).  If you are growing a stripe rust susceptible variety, it is important to keep an eye on your fields and follow further PCDMN cereal risk updates (https://prairiecropdisease.blogspot.com/). 

2021 Cereal Rust Risk Report (May 21-27, 2021)

The latest Prairie wind trajectory cereal rust risk report is available for download now at the following link: May 21-27, 2021 report.  

As of May 27, 2021 the overall Prairie cereal rust risk assessment and need for in-crop scouting is as follows:

Pacific Northwest: Even though there were a number of reverse wind trajectories that passed over the PNW region and into the prairies, given limited stripe rust development in the PNW and early stages of Prairie spring crop development, as of May 27, 2021 the risk of stripe rust appearance from the PNW is limited and scouting for this disease from this US region is generally not urgent.

Texas-Oklahoma corridor: Given increasing stripe rust development in this corridor (especially Oklahoma), an increased number of recent wind trajectories from this area into the central to western Prairie region, as well as the Kindersley, SK area, and early stages of Prairie spring crop development, as of May 27, 2021 the risk of leaf and stripe rust appearance from the Texas-Nebraska corridor is low-moderate.  Scouting for these diseases in winter wheat fields in central to eastern Saskatchewan as well as the Kindersley region, and Manitoba locations is recommended over the next 1-2 weeks, especially those planted to stripe rust susceptible varieties. 

Kansas-Nebraska corridor: Stripe rust is continuing to develop in Kansas, and is progressing in Nebraska, while there were limited to no recent wind trajectories from this area into the central to western Prairie region, except for Kindersley, SK.  However, there have been a number of trajectories that have passed over the central to eastern Prairie region.  As of May 27, 2021 the risk of leaf and stripe rust appearance from the Kansas-Nebraska corridor is low for the central to western Prairie region and moderate (mainly for stripe rust) for the central to eastern Prairie region as well as the Kindersley area.  Scouting for these diseases in winter wheat fields is recommended over the next 1-2 weeks, especially those planted to stripe rust susceptible varieties.  

2021 Cereal Rust Risk Report (May 12-20, 2021)

The latest Prairie wind trajectory cereal rust risk report is available for download now at the following link: May 12-20, 2021 report.  

As of May 20, 2021 the overall Prairie cereal rust risk assessment and need for in-crop scouting is as follows:

Pacific Northwest – Even though there were a number of reverse wind trajectories that passed over the PNW region and into the prairies, given limited stripe rust development in the PNW, generally dry Prairie weather conditions during the week of May 10-16, 2021, and early stages of Prairie crop development, as of May 20, 2021 the risk of stripe rust appearance from the PNW is limited and scouting for this disease is generally not urgent.

Texas-Oklahoma corridor – Given limited leaf and stripe rust development in this corridor (especially Texas), a smaller number of recent wind trajectories from this area, generally dry Prairie weather conditions, and early stages of Prairie crop development, as of May 20, 2021 the risk of leaf and stripe rust appearance from the Texas-Nebraska corridor is low and scouting for these diseases is not urgent. 

Kansas-Nebraska corridor – Stripe rust is continuing to develop in Kansas, and is progressing in Nebraska, while there were limited to no recent wind trajectories from this area into the central to western Prairie region.  However, there have been a number of trajectories that have passed over the central to eastern Prairie region.  Overall Prairie weather conditions have been dry during the period of May 10-16, 2021, and generally dry in Saskatchewan and Manitoba from April 17-May 16, 2021.  Prairie spring wheat development is still early, while winter cereals continue to develop.  As of May 20, 2021 the risk of leaf and stripe rust appearance from the Kansas-Nebraska corridor is low for the central to western Prairie region and moderate (mainly for stripe rust) for the central to eastern Prairie region.  Scouting for these diseases in winter wheat fields is recommended over the next 1-2 weeks, especially those planted to stripe rust susceptible varieties. 

Recent reports of stripe rust in Minnesota and Illinois suggest more northerly development of this disease and as a consequence growers in the central to eastern Prairie region should be on the look out for stripe rust over the next couple of weeks, especially in fields planted to susceptible winter wheat varieties. 

Mid-week mini cereal rust risk update - May 19, 2021

There has been a significant increase in the number of wind trajectories, originating over a number of states in the USA, that have crossed the prairies (Fig. 1). These air currents may introduce cereal rust spores into to the Prairie region. ECCC trajectory models indicate that air trajectories, originating over the Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon, Washington), have crossed Alberta, Saskatchewan and western Manitoba (Fig. 2). Trajectories originating over Texas and Oklahoma have passed over eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba (Fig. 3). A third group of trajectories, originating across Kansas and Nebraska have also crossed eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba (Fig. 4). Though these US regions can be a source of cereal rust spores, the ECCC models predict air movement, not actual occurrence of cereal rust spores.  However, stripe and leaf rust continue to develop in the Oklahoma to Nebraska corridor, while development of stripe rust has generally been more limited in the Pacific Northwest.  Dry conditions in some Prairie regions and early crop development, especially in relation to spring cereals, may limit the risk.  However, scouting of winter wheat fields over the next 1-2 weeks, especially those planted to stripe and leaf rust susceptible varieties, should be considered in Prairie regions where these trajectories have occurred. 

The full PCDMN weekly cereal rust risk report will be available later this week and will include an overview of the cereal rust situation in key source regions in the USA.  

The PCDMN thanks Ross Weiss and Meghan Vankosky, AAFC Saskatoon, Jennifer Otani, AAFC Beaverlodge, and the PPMN for passing along this recent wind trajectory information. 

Figure 1. Summary of the average number (5 day running average) of reverse trajectories that have crossed the Canadian prairies (May 1-19, 2021).

Figure 2.  The green region indicates potential introduction of stripe rust uredospores from the Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon, and Washington) to the Canadian prairies (May 18-19, 2021).

Figure 3.  The green region indicates potential introduction of stripe and leaf rust uredospores from Texas and Oklahoma to the Canadian prairies (May 18-19, 2021).

Figure 4.  The green region indicates potential introduction of stripe and leaf rust uredospores from Kansas and Nebraska to the Canadian prairies (May 18-19, 2021).

Weekly Cereal Rust Risk Report (Jul 7-13)

The 10th wind trajectory/cereal rust risk report is available for July 7-13, 2020.  Overall the risk of stripe rust movement from the Pacific Northwest (PNW) is low-moderate.  Although, winter wheat is approaching maturity in the PNW and is being harvested in some regions, the spring wheat crop has just headed out and is still at a stage where further stripe rust could develop in the next week to two weeks.  However, the acreage of spring wheat is about a 1/3 of the acreage of winter wheat (520,000 acres versus 1,700,000 acres) and growers are being encouraged to spray with a fungicide to limit further rust development (https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/results/E8A8F30A-19BD-341C-A8DF-B2FD3A78ACBB).

Given the appearance of stripe rust in seven southern Alberta municipalities, at Beaverlodge in the Country of Grande Prairie, and at three locations in Saskatchewan, farmers in these regions should be on the look out for stripe rust in wheat.  In addition, farmers in regions north and east to northeast of southern Alberta should be on alert as southerly winds may transport stripe rust spores.  Special focus should be on wheat fields seeded to varieties rated as susceptible or moderately susceptible.  Also, given the appearance of crown rust in the Mannville region of Alberta, as well as at Carman, Manitoba, oat growers in this area need to be on the look out for crown rust.

Link: Full report for July 7-13, 2020

2020 Cereal Rust Risk Report (Jun 30-Jul 06)

Since 2019, the Prairie Crop Disease Monitoring Network (PCDMN) has released a series of weekly Cereal Rust Risk Reports throughout May and June.  Read the OVERVIEW describing the collaborative nature of this effort and the methods employed.  Information related to trajectory events based on forecast and diagnostic wind fields and cereal rust risk is experimental, and is offered to the public for informational purposes only.


The latest wind trajectory cereal rust risk report is available for download now at the following link: June 30-July 6, 2020 report.  

As of July 6, 2020 the risk of stripe rust appearance from the Pacific Northwest (PNW) or from regional sources is low to moderate.  However, some Prairie locations may be at an increased stripe rust risk, especially where there were 3-6 reverse wind trajectory events from the PNW.  In addition, regional development of stripe rust continues to occur, especially in southern Alberta.  See this link for the latest map of Alberta locations where stripe rust has been observed as of July 9, 2020: July 9, 2020 AB stripe rust map.   

Given the appearance of stripe rust in four counties in southern Alberta, at Beaverlodge in the Country of Grande Prairie, and the first observations in the Saskatoon area of Saskatchewan, farmers in these regions should be on the look out for stripe rust in wheat.  Special focus should be on wheat fields seeded to varieties rated as susceptible or moderately susceptible. 


Access the ALL the full reports as downloadable PDF files by clicking the Cereal Rust Risk page.